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r/CryptoMarkets

FOREX community for cryptocurrencies. Tags: mt gox bitcoin, long term potential, open source exchange, low inflation rate, demand and price, technical analysis, fundamentals, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Augur, token, volume, oscillator, RSI, stochastic, trend, sentiment, strategy, scam, coin, coinmarketcap, altcoin, Peercoin, script, blockchain, PoW, PoS, Proof of Work,
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Ethereum Classic

Ethereum Classic is an open, decentralized, and permissionless public blockchain, that aims to fulfill the original promise of Ethereum, as a platform where smart contracts are free from third-party interference. ETC prioritizes trust-minimization, network security, and integrity. All network upgrades are non-contentious with the aim to fix critical issues or to add value with newly proposed features; never to create new tokens, or to bail out flawed smart contracts and their interest groups.
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r/CryptoMarkets testing subreddit.

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New to Trading? Here's some tips

So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders.
  1. Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUUSD is the worst offender.
  2. Trade the Daily. Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens.
  3. There is no holy grail indicator Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy.
  4. What currencies to pick. I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY).
  5. USE YOUR SL Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense.
  6. How to pick your TP and SL level. Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it.
  7. Lot sizes. Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade.
  8. How to avoid reversals. Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half.
  9. There is NO right way to trade. Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that).
  10. Trade money you're willing to lose Don't trade your rent money.
That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone.
submitted by MannyTrade to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

MCS | MCS, Recognized by Famous Media in the World

MCS | MCS, Recognized by Famous Media in the World

https://preview.redd.it/iohxa47wwzs51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f8ab490479c77d86e5aeabbe16f7ea4a399b1ee
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

Following the last post on the credible data providers that approved MCS in the cryptocurrency market, this post will look at what global cryptocurrency specialized media channels recognized MCS.

1. Bitcoin.com


https://preview.redd.it/mngtxx1xwzs51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ebbe2e236f032687dc55dc44df985c0256ad796
Bitcoin.com is a comprehensive blockchain company founded by a famous blockchain investor and entrepreneur Roger Ver. Bitcoin.com News, a subsidiary of Bitcoin.com, is one of the largest cryptocurrency media companies in the cryptocurrency industry and reports all news on the blockchain and cryptocurrency. .
Meet MCS on Bitcoin.com: https://news.bitcoin.com/mcs-first-exchange-to-list-trons-sun-and-klaytns-klay-futures-contracts/

2. Coin Readers


https://preview.redd.it/9unzrmuxwzs51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=d60bed230c8ff3fcb374ad1dd5f37a27b691d1d4
Coin Readers is a blockchain specialized media that analyzes news on various technologies and trends that lead the 4th Industrial Revolution ecosystem through blockchain, and delivers them to the public quickly and accurately.
Meet MCS on Coin Readers: http://coinreaders.com/8712

3. Bitcoin Insider


https://preview.redd.it/yzjltaoywzs51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d072f34701e93b2e8d3866d0d3cf4c63fcbec40
Bitcoin Insider is one of the largest cryptocurrency media that provides cryptocurrency market data and reports related news.
Meet MCS on Bitcoin Insider: https://www.bitcoininsider.org/article/94355/mcs-first-exchange-list-trons-sun-and-klaytns-klay-futures-contracts

4. Yahoo Finance


https://preview.redd.it/sraec3jzwzs51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=019def4eb9bb783cbc8e5f11e03aea4623b3de9d
Yahoo Finance is a media outlet that is part of the US Internet search engine, Yahoo. Yahoo Finance provides global financial quotes, news, and data, and is also known for its pro-blockchain attitude.
Meet MCS on Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcs-global-cryptocurrency-perpetual-contracts-110000829.html?guccounter=1

5. Visionary Financial


https://preview.redd.it/77j0dt60xzs51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1c4df9eb3785b2eaf6db41a8f235ddd48a030a9
Visionary Financial is a global media founded in 2018. It provides the latest news around the world and is known for providing influential information with a focus on blockchain industry analysis.
Meet MCS on Visionary Financial: https://visionary-finance.com/news/MCS-A-Crypto-Perpetual-Contracts-Trading-Platform-Officially-Launches-Operations/

6. Finanzen.net


https://preview.redd.it/d68032u0xzs51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=73a087f75d88492630a78a1f0d1bead724918f66
Finanzen.net is a media channel that provides global financial news, and data such as real-time financial asset prices and cryptocurrency prices to individual traders. It also provides exchange rates and Forex charts.
Meet MCS on Finanzen.net: https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/mcs-a-global-cryptocurrency-perpetual-contracts-trading-platform-is-now-officially-launched-as-of-june-15-8976734

7. Digital Journal


https://preview.redd.it/gxjvmii1xzs51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ce7b7df159c962c636be48c7b4db3b4fad2205f
Digital Journal is a global digital media network with contributors from all over the world. Global news is reported, and news articles of Digital Journals are posted on various platforms including its website, Facebook, and Twitter.
Meet MCS on Digital Journal: http://www.digitaljournal.com/p4713330
We have looked at the trusted global cryptocurrency media that introduced MCS. The last post and this post clearly show that the MCS Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trading Platform, a new exchange that has only been launched for only 4 months, has already been recognized for its reliability and technology by numerous reputable institutions.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

I used to trade only FOREX. I have since diversified into cryptocurrency for a less stressful approach. Anyone here interested in learning how to trade cryptocurrency and what steps you need to take?

As the title says, I used to only trade on FOREX. I have since diversified into cryptocurrency because FOREX was so stressful for me and I needed to have something that was a bit less news-job-report intensive to level it all out. You can't get away from charts and candles in crypto, but I feel like there are more long-term hold opportunities in the crypto space and I feel like longer-term investments are less stressful for me. I know this isn't 100% FOREX related, but since I do trade on FOREX, I feel like it has relevance in terms of the ways the spaces are similar.
First, the reasons I diversified. The main one that frustrates me is I feel like the cards are stacked against me in ways I have no control over. Exchanges can sell information about customer buy and sell points to bigger fish than me. The whales have way more information about what the public is doing than I do. Next, trading firms have access to news much faster than me. They can process announcements in microseconds. And lastly, countries do crazy things with their currencies and I just wasn't great at interpreting all the signs. I don't like my fortunes being tied to job reports and the decisions of a treasury secretary that doesn't take any input from me.
The above reasons pushed me to start trading longer term in FOREX. That's fine, there are plenty of long-term strategies that work. Most people will tell you that longer-term is safer, and so the shift didn't bug me that much. But over time, I felt like there were more currencies I was missing out on, so I started adding cryptocurrency into my portfolio.
For those of you that don't know much about cryptocurrency, it's basically a currency that is not controlled by any one person or government (or shouldn't be). It's money free from political corruption, free from bailouts, and free from big banks. It is also highly more volatile than FOREX. Gains and losses are measured in the 10% or 20% range per day. There's actually lots of money to be made day trading it, just like FOREX. But I chose to take a longer term approach for my peace of mind.
One of the things that I looked for when trading FOREX was to trade pairs where I could earn interest while holding it. Then when the pair appreciated, I could sell it for a gain plus the interest. Win win.
Right now, I feel like I found that in ADA (Cardano) crypto. ADA just opened staking (mining) capability last week, meaning that just by holding it you can earn 4.5%-5.5% on your coins (paid in coins, not in dollars). It's the most undervalued crypto in the market (in my opinion), and the fundamentals on it look really strong. It is doing everything I was hoping a FOREX pair would do and I think it's the best crypto investment right now, so I'm just filing it away as a 5-year investment. It's now 50% of my "overall" currency investments, including FOREX.
Anyway, that's my story. I wanted to share it in case anyone here was curious about Cardano in particular, and how it related to fiat currencies. I was super intimidated about crypto at first, but I am also a software developer with a lot of experience, and so I was able to make the transition quite well. I even started my own mining pool to earn more.
submitted by WiddleWhiskers to Forex [link] [comments]

Idea that needs someone that can actually program

Hello guys,
First of all, if I had this idea odds are at least 100 other people have had it too so if y'all can point me in their direction and see how they have applied it, I would be thankful. I have been getting into neural networks a lot lately, and one of my first thoughts was to use them for the forex market. The main issue I ran into, however, was how to present the data to the NN.
The thing most, if not all, examples I have read do is that they use an x number of previous candles + an indicator of some sort and maybe pairing it with another coin or some other variable to predict the next candle's closing price, or high, or low. After giving it a shot myself, it has been lackluster at best, and a complete failure at worst.
The idea I have been thinking about was the following: use the previous x candles and indicators and other pairs and whatever not to predict the next candle, but to instead predict if at some point, any point, in the future, the price will rise by a certain amount (say 100 pips), or drop by that same amount.
If we had a chart with the data for each candle (OHLC, an indicator's value, and another pair's value at that moment in time, for instance, all of which can be obtained from TradingView), and we associated with each candle a 1 if the first thing that happens at some point in the future is that it goes up by, say, 50 pips, or a 0 if the next thing that happens is that it goes down by 50 pips, then the neural network could be trained to predict based on the past if you trade on this candle, the price will go up by 50 pips in the future, in which case you enter the trade with a take-profit of 50 pips, and a SL of 50 pips, or if it will decrease by 50 pips in the future, in which case you do the opposite.
That's the idea. If anyone's done it before, I would appreciate a link to their work, and if anyone thinks this is dumb, do tell me too.
submitted by MrStealYourFrog to algotrading [link] [comments]

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. Dollars

Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.

https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6

https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.

https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.

The Rise of Crypto Dollars

Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.

https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.

Institutional Developments

In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.

https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.

Future Opportunities

There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
Thank you.

Reference:
[1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
[2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
[3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
[4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
[5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
[6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
[7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
[8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
[9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
[10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
[11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
[12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
[13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
[14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
[15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
[16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
[17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
[18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
[19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
[20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]

Extons || Let's get familiar with its tools and features

Extons || Let's get familiar with its tools and features
crypto is well known for its volatility and unpredictable nature. Many projects show good improvement when they first launched but at the end of the campaign, they failed to deliver a promising product to its community. This is a crypto and it gave us a lot of good and useful projects.
Binance doesn't become binance in one day. It takes time to build up a quality exchnage. Though crypto is a very unpredictable sector of finance still there are some qualities that we can judge to know about the project merits. Today I am going to talk about an upcoming exchange that offers so much good tools and service. The name of that exchange is Extons.
For those who are already with me for quite a few days, you all must have known about my previous article about Extons. Today I am going to talk about its service, tools, and potential in the market. Then let's jump into it.

https://preview.redd.it/4lcgkmj17co51.jpg?width=3319&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5fe887e3de8a277f1559217ae2ad76fe3e9cfd8
Quick introduction:
Before we jump into details about that exchange I want to give you guys a quick introduction about the exchange. Extons is a centralized cryptocurrency exchange that is a part of the thisoption ecosystem. Extons offers multiple payment gateways and a wide variety of crypto trading pairs for its users. They also have some amazing programs for users that can give them an opportunity to make some passive income. Let's talk about different tab of Extons exchange and their use.
Markets: The very first tab a user will see in that exchange when they log in is the market tab. By clicking this tab users will see an interface where they will see various market pair and their annual return based on their investment products. This is a very basic and common tab that every other exchange has.
Trade: In this tab, the user will see the 3 subcategory tab. They are accordingly Basic, Classic, Advanced. Basic one offers the simplest way of trading. The user just needs to select the coin he wants to convert and the coin he wants to receive in return. The conversion rate will be in the current market price and current market price details will be shown right below. In classic trading, users will get old charts and tools but in advanced trade, users will get the most advanced tools and charts for trading.
Finance: In this tab, there are two options available for the user. One is saving and another is staking. Both of them give users a chance to make some passive income by putting their assets into saving program or staking program. The saving program is pretty unique in the Extons platform.
Ecosystem: In this tab, there are 5 components. At first, came white paper. In this project whitepaper, users will be able to know about project details, roadmap, and other project related information.
By clicking the Binary option tab it will redirect users to another website called thisoption where users can take a part in options trading. It is also a product of the Thisoption company.
By clicking the Forex trading tab user will be able to see the Thisoption company's forex trading website. Forex is also a form of trading where cryptocurrency and fiat currency can be traded with each other.

https://preview.redd.it/p43fb2797co51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eebc0c39fd27e0001d6a55f34ae975df4f48f4f0
The payment gateway tab will take the user to a page where they will be able to use different payment options offered by the Extons platform. There are traditional and crypto payments system.
The communication portal will help traders to keep in touch with other traders in the extons community. They can talk and share with each other will news, trading experience, and opinion.
More: This tab contains News and support. Users can contact support for any help or know about project developments.
Fund: In the fund's tab users will be able to know about their overall portfolio and they can deposit or withdraw their funds from this tab. Also, users will be able to check their deposit and withdraw history from here.
Orders: In the orders, tab users can check their current order status and old order history. They will be able to cancel their current order or modify them as they can.
My savings: In this tab users can see the currently active saving packages they are in. They can join different saving packages based on their portfolio. Also, they can check their income form their savings packages.
I.B Program: In this tab users will be able to check their invitation record and their commission from their referrals. Also, they can find their referral link here that they can share with others to get more referrals commissions.
Profile tab: In this tab, users will get to know about their profile information, security settings, and Address management. They can change their profile information, profile security, and also be able to change their withdrawal address for a different cryptocurrency. Also, they can log out from the platform by clicking log out from this tab.
Wrap up:
Extons doing a massive bounty program for their community. They are super active in social media and keep updating their community about new listing and partnership. I am very impressed with the project and its dedication.

Website || Thisoption || Whitepaper || Telegram || Facebook || Medium

Author: u/thorex25
Disclaimer
This article is not meant to give commercial or any other kind of advice. It is just an informative text at all.
submitted by dojogang to DigitalCryptoWorld [link] [comments]

https://twitter.com/younive87630435/status/1301619636262318080?s=20

#YOUengine #YOUC #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency
Top 5 ways to invest in YOUR FUTURE Chart with upwards trend BitForex: YOUC/USDT Chart with upwards trend P2PB2B: YOUC/BTC, ETH, USD, UDST, XLM Chart with upwards trend Latoken: YOUC/BTC, ETH, USDT, LA, BCH Chart with upwards trend CoinBene: YOUC/USDT Chart with upwards trendShopping bags On-site (NO KYC): YOUC/USDC, ETH, FIAT BANK CARD Right pointing backhand index https://youengine.io/buy/ Right pointing backhand index MORE TOP exchanges are coming!
submitted by Barbero26 to u/Barbero26 [link] [comments]

What would happen if sovereign governments gave bitcoin a gold peg?

This is a totally theoretical post, but I believe it is a really interesting idea and would love to get the Internet's feedback on it, and what you think the ripple effects would be in the scenario described. Am very interested in writing this up and republishing it widely so it can be read by monetary policymakers in all major developed countries - if you know anyone like that, pass it on. In a move that would act like a bridge to a pre-Bretton Woods type of gold peg, (here is a great paper on a history of this in the US: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41887.pdf) sovereign governments with gold holdings could (again, it is a theoretical idea - I am saying they COULD do this NOT that anyone or any country is doing this that I know of) establish open market operations to purchase bitcoins (partly as a diversification strategy) using their physical gold holdings at a fixed peg rate of 5 ounces per bitcoin. The reason I say 5 is because the current chart here seems to suggest that somewhat of a convergence to 5 oz is already occurring: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=10Y
If any government did this and offered to buy physically delivered bitcoins from private holders of bitcoin (no other coins just BTC) in exchange for private delivery of physical gold, then the standard governmental unit of physical gold (held in places like Fort Knox) - known as the Good Delivery Bar which is 400oz of gold - could be procured by any holder of 80 or more coins in a secure and sanctioned exchange with the government in question - the most impactful of course would be if the US did this.
My theory is that any time the exchange rate mechanisms in the forex or crypto markets violated the peg, there would be arbitrage opportunities that would bring the peg back in line. It would not only stabilize BTC, but the stabilization might spread via the 24/7 exchange rate mechanism in the crypto market to stabilize many cryptos that are still somewhat worthy experimental stores of value. Depending on the strength, credit, and depth of gold holdings of whatever governments engaged in this, it would seem that such a strategy could transform bitcoin into a new type of sound money, and also signal that owning bitcoin and gold is a priority of governments as well as their citizens. The gold standard was powerful both because it was tethered to something of limited quantity in the earth's crust with unique properties, but also because pre-Bretton Woods gold standards acted very much like a peg - and the government honored the peg no matter what. So in some sense it was still the "faith and credit of the government" that made that peg work so famously. I was partly inspired by this recent award-winning documentary www.inmoneywetrust.org in formulating this idea, and partly by my own academic interest in cryptocurrency. I believe bitcoin, above all others, because of its deflationary nature and algorithmically fixed quantity, is powerful all in itself - but with a peg from a real government to a real precious metal that many governments do in fact hoard (for whatever reason) - it could become both an international currency, and a form of truly sound money backed by governments' physical gold reserves and a legal or policy commitment to a peg of 5 ounces to 1 bitcoin.
What do you all think would happen if a major government or many major governments did this? Remember the idea is to convince monetary policymakers in governments to willingly and openly bypass completely the fiat currencies of their governments and to make no informational commitment to those free-floating fiat markets for forex - so the bitcoins transacted for in the peg wouldn't be bought with dollars or yen or anything that could be printed by fiat. This would simply be a convertibility guarantee by major governments that 1 bitcoin, transferred to the Treasury by a private citizen or business (again so the Treasury could diversify holdings of sound money), would be convertible and be guaranteed to be convertible to 5 oz of physical, deliverable gold bullion (or 80 bitcoins per bar). Here is a list of the largest physical gold holders on earth who could theoretically engage in this type of operation: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/what-countries-have-largest-gold-reserves.asp
Thanks Reddit! Looking forward to your thoughts!
Alex Kaufman
submitted by emersonian85 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Trading View (Request)

App Name: TradingView - stock charts, Forex & Bitcoin ticker
Description: Stock charts with real-time market quotes & trading ideas. Traders & Investors.
Simple for beginners and effective for technical analysis experts, TradingView has all of the instruments for publication and the viewing of trading ideas. Real-time quotes and charts are available for wherever you are at whatever time.
At TradingView, all data is obtained by professional providers who have direct and extensive access to stock quotes, futures, popular indices, Forex, Bitcoin and CFDs.
You can effectively track stock market and major global indices such as the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 (SPX), NYSE, Dow Jones (DJI), DAX, FTSE 100, NIKKEI 225, etc. You can also learn more about exchange rates, oil prices, mutual funds, bonds, ETFs and other commodities.
TradingView is the most active social network for traders and investors. Connect with millions of traders from around the world, learn from the experiences of other investors and discuss trading ideas.
Advanced Charts TradingView has excellent charts that surpass even desktop trading platforms in quality — all for free. No compromises. All of the features, settings and tools of our charts will also be available in our app version. Over 10 types of charts for market analysis from different angles. Starting with an elementary chart line and ending with Renko and Kagi charts, which focus heavily on price fluctuations and barely take time into account as a factor. They can be very useful for determining long-term trends and can help you earn money.
Choose from a large selection of price analysis tools, including, but not limited to, indicators, strategies, drawing objects (i.e. Gann, Elliot Wave, moving averages) and more.
Individual watchlists and alerts You can track major global indices, stocks, currency pairs, bonds, futures, mutual funds, commodities and cryptocurrencies all in real-time.
Alerts will help you not to miss the smallest of changes in the market and will allow you to react in time to invest or sell profitably, increasing your overall profit.
Flexible settings help you to track the indices you need and also group them in a way that is convenient for you.
Syncing your accounts All saved changes, notifications, charts, and technical analysis, which you began on the TradingView platform will be automatically accessible from your mobile device through the app.
Real-time data from global exchanges Gain access to data in real-time on more than 100,000 instruments from over 50 exchanges from the United States, Russia, the East, and countries in Asia and Europe, such as: NYSE, LSE, TSE, SSE, HKEx, Euronext, TSX, SZSE, FWB, SIX, ASX, KRX, NASDAQ, JSE, Bolsa de Madrid, TWSE, BM&F/B3, MOEX and many others!
Commodity prices In real-time, you can track prices for gold, silver, oil, natural gas, cotton, sugar, wheat, corn, and many other products.
Global indices Track major indices of the world stock market in real-time: ■ North and South America: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NYSE, NASDAQ Composite, SmallCap 2000, NASDAQ 100, Merval, Bovespa, RUSSELL 2000, IPC, IPSA; ■ Europe: CAC 40, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35, ATX, BEL 20, DAX, BSE Sofia, PX, РТС, ММВБ (MOEX); ■ Asian-Pacific Ocean Regions: NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, NIFTY, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE, S&P/ASX 200, HANG SENG, KOSPI, KLCI, NZSE 50; ■ Africa: Kenya NSE 20, Semdex, Moroccan All Shares, South Africa 40; and ■ Middle East: EGX 30, Amman SE General, Kuwait Main, TA 25.
Cryptocurrency Get the opportunity to compare prices from leading cryptocurrency exchanges, such as HitBTC, Binance, BitBay, Coinbase, Mercado Gemini, Kraken, Huobi, OkCoin, and many others. Get information on prices for: ■ Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP); ■ Ethereum ( ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), IOTA; ■ Dogecoin (DOGE), USD Coin (USDC), Tron (TRX); ■ Stellar (XLM), Tether (USDT), Cardano (ADA); ■ Monero (XMR), ZCash (ZEC), Dash.
Playstore Link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tradingview.tradingviewapp
Mod Features: Additional indicators available in pro version of this app
submitted by shinigamidoge to moddedandroidapps [link] [comments]

CMC Markets: is everything in CFDs? If so, how do the forward date ones work?

I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities?

Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).

Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?

Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
Thanks :)
submitted by fittyfive9 to Forex [link] [comments]

Thoughts on cryptocurrency (design, function, quantitative analysis/market forecast) and the politics of aid in the new post-COVID-19 era/epoch

Cryptocurrency $1.4bn of $25bn financial reporting market/space.
ETFs at 25% of mutual funds, mutual funds at 40% of the stock market, FinViz.com market cap. as US-based, looking at near 38-40% discounting on population-based speculation (because of 40% worldwide markets under 3% since 1961-2018, and because of OTC derivatives compared with total money supply less inflation, over the past 20-30 years), because of the credit/debit cycle of recessions in less wealthy countries viz. WorldBank data, IMF rules about aid disbursements, etc.
FinViz: $41.55tn; at an average with market capitalization given proper weight, 1.95% gains on average, per a review of the total M1 money supply compared with FOREX trades, per day, compared with the commodities schedule, viz. ports and distribution centers/shipping and trucking companies (internal consistency test/check on the market); also, businesses and sectors totaling less than $1.4bn, or some multiplier of that, even accounting for growth, by 2025 or later.
Gold and other precious metals, etc., as a function of the BitCoin halving, as an institutional and technological hedge (use BitCoin as a hedge against inflation, or an indicator of it, after the halving, and gold/precious metals as a hedge on BitCoin, as empty money viz. real-perceived value of commodities, and as a way to financially exert institutional leverage on the development of perfect security for distribution supply-chains, AI-based coins, etc.
*
The U.S. and allies (OECD) stimulus to poorer nations; did the territories get stimulus checks?
*
Dollar, CryptoBuck, the $1 start-up currency; starts at $1, companies buy a % of that $1, the $1 is scheduled to have its return and discount the rest into charitable funds as the stock market does it’s martingale cycle, moving forward, to fight inflation; that is, every time the stock market does a martingale cycle, 50% less is released as a new coin offering, so initially $1, then $0.50, then $0.25, then $0.125, and so on, with the rest going to charity, thru X number of cycles; thus you have, at the outset, $1 dedicated to investments, and that is used as a tracker, sort of like a cookie, the shareholder % holdings are divided say, every year, or every two years, or every four years, not frequently, in other words, to emphasize the credit/debit cycle outside of the calendar year period, and say it’s pegged to the S&P500, or a section of NASDAQ, or a specific type of instrument, like a portfolio of risk-balanced ETFs, that could be it’s own project, when that doubles in market capitalization, or overall return % since the ICO, the amount of new buy-in to the coin is halved, no matter what the current price of the coin is, such that you can buy a new generation of coins, which are say less risk-averse because of the prior filtering of data through products like Yoga/Coil, of the initial $1 unit, at an additional $0.50, but with the other $0.50 going to charity, and see if you can reach a convention well past 3% of earnings, but in fact almost 100% of future earnings, asymptotically, on small amounts of money, really is the idea. So that as the coin shrinks in utility, the magnification between lending of point-to-point, cent loaned to cent owed, becomes obvious.
*
StarChart (qualitative sentiment index/NLP insights into music criticism/YouTube commentary, etc.). Art/music, charity, astrophysics. YieldShare, Tully, etc.
submitted by dougieschuschu to u/dougieschuschu [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

MAME 0.210

MAME 0.210

It’s time for the delayed release of MAME 0.210, marking the end of May. This month, we’ve got lots of fixes for issues with supported systems, as well as some interesting additions. Newly added hand-held and tabletop games include Tronica’s Shuttle Voyage and Space Rescue, Mattel’s Computer Chess, and Parker Brothers’ Talking Baseball and Talking Football. On the arcade side, we’ve added high-level emulation of Gradius on Bubble System hardware and a prototype of the Neo Geo game Viewpoint. For this release, Jack Li has contributed an auto-fire plugin, providing additional functionality over the built-in auto-fire feature.
A number of systems have had been promoted to working, or had critical issues fixed, including the Heathkit H8, Lola 8A, COSMAC Microkit, the Soviet PC clone EC-1840, Zorba, and COMX 35. MMU issues affecting Apollo and Mac operating systems have been addressed. Other notable improvements include star field emulation in Tutankham, further progress on SGI emulation, Sega Saturn video improvements, write support for the CoCo OS-9 disk image format, and preliminary emulation for MP3 audio on Konami System 573 games.
There are lots of software list additions this month. Possibly most notable is the first dump of a Hanimex Pencil II cartridge, thanks to the silicium.org team. Another batch of cleanly cracked and original Apple II software has been added, along with more ZX Spectrum +3 software, and a number of Colour Genie cassette titles.
That’s all we’ve got space for here, but there are lots more bug fixes, alternate versions of supported arcade games, and general code quality improvements. As always, you can get the source and Windows binary packages from the download page.

MAMETesters Bugs Fixed

New working machines

New working clones

Machines promoted to working

Clones promoted to working

New machines marked as NOT_WORKING

New clones marked as NOT_WORKING

New working software list additions

Software list items promoted to working

New NOT_WORKING software list additions

Source Changes

submitted by cuavas to emulation [link] [comments]

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